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                                                                                                                                                                          黑金帝国线上娱乐:隆基股份:盈利能力环比持续回升 产能扩张巩固龙头地位

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年05月12日 07:25 来源:【点击进入、惊喜不断】

                                                                                                                                                                            隆基股份(601012)

                                                                                                                                                                            事件:公司发布18年年报和19年一季报,18年实现营收219.88亿,同增34.38%;实现归上净利25.58亿,同减28.24%;19Q1实现营收57.1亿,同增64.56%;实现归上净利6.11亿,同增12.54%。同时公布19-21年产能规划,计划21年公司硅棒/硅片、电池片、组件产能分别达到65、20、30GW。

                                                                                                                                                                            毛利率环比提升,业绩强劲复苏。18Q3/18Q4/19Q1公司毛利率分别为21.32%/22.33%/23.54%,环比分别变化-1.68/+1.01/+1.21PCT,连续两个季度盈利能力回升。公司非硅成本进一步降低,其中拉晶和切片环节平均单位非硅成本分别同降10.49%和27.81%,助推公司制造环节盈利改善。

                                                                                                                                                                            单晶产能扩张提速,巩固全球龙头地位。为保障高效单晶产品的市场供给,公司计划19-21年底硅棒/硅片、电池片、组件产能将分别达到36/50/65GW、10/15/20GW、16/25/30GW,进一步巩固高效单晶一体化龙头地位。

                                                                                                                                                                            下半年有望量价齐升,看好公司盈利能力。若国内光伏政策如期落地,下半年在国内光伏项目建设以及海外传统旺季的拉动下,行业有望迎来产品供应紧张、价格上涨的格局,公司全年盈利业绩有望超预期,或提前迎估值切换。

                                                                                                                                                                            投资建议:预计19-21年EPS为1.24、1.54、2.00元,对应PE为18.4、14.8、11.4倍,给予公司19年25倍估值,对应目标价31元,维持“买入”评级。

                                                                                                                                                                            风险提示:新技术、全球贸易保护、装机波动、成本下降低于预期风险等