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                                                                                                                                                                          斗地主注册送20元:医药生物五月投资策略:业绩公布后回归价值 关注医药政策

                                                                                                                                                                          (原标题:医药生物五月投资策略:业绩公布后回归价值 关注医药政策)

                                                                                                                                                                          4月以来医药板块跟随市场调整,各板块中位居中上游。年初至5月10日,以算术平均值计算,A股医药生物板块上涨25.54%,比4月月报有所回落;在28个行业中排名上升至第7位,位居中上游水平,体现出市场调整时医药板块的防御性。4月以来医药板块跟随市场调整,部分行业龙头、低估值板块具有较强的抗跌属性,取得一定的超额收益;取得绝对收益的个股主要包括:1)近视眼药等主题概念股;2)市场参与度低的超跌个股反弹;3)低估值板块及不受带量采购影响的细分领域龙头。

                                                                                                                                                                          年报季报业绩公布,板块间及板块内呈现分化。全部A股已公布2018年报及2019年一季报。商誉减值、会计差错更正等黑天鹅事件,使得市场回归价值、更加关注财务报表质量。回顾分析年报及一季报,非药板块(零售、器械、服务)业绩增长较快,原料药从景气高点回落,药品板块(化学制剂、中药、生物及批发)增长有所放缓。各板块内部也有明显分化,仿制药4+7带量采购、辅助用药限制、高值耗材降价等政策以及疫苗、体检事件导致部分公司业绩受到影响;但各细分领域龙头公司经营稳健、聚焦主业,2018年大多保持了稳定增长。

                                                                                                                                                                          市场由主题回归价值,业绩真空期关注医药政策。五一节后,市场情绪突然由热转凉,前期上涨较多的主题概念股股有所调整,同时估值压力也得到一定程度的释放。年报季报期业绩公布后缺乏新的基本面因素变化,业绩真空期市场更多关注医药政策与事件。重点关注的医药政策包括医保目录2019年调整(常规及谈判准入),仿制药第二批4+7带量采购预期,医保个人账户改革动向;事件层面,2019年ASCO会议将在5月底至6月初举行,创新药企业将在会上公布各自产品的临床进展,这些将成为相关个股的催化剂。

                                                                                                                                                                          风险提示:第二批4+7带量采购超预期;高值耗材降价改革进度超预期;

                                                                                                                                                                          投资建议:回归价值,关注医药政策。2019年5月国信医药A股组合:恒瑞医药、迈克生物、天坛生物、上海医药;5月国信医药港股组合为:金斯瑞生物科技、石药集团、中国中药。此外,推荐医疗器械龙头企业。

                                                                                                                                                                          (文章来源:国信证券)