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                                                                                                                                                                          澳门永利电话:中信建投:猪肉驱动的N形通胀

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年05月15日 11:30 来源:【点击进入、惊喜不断】
                                                                                                                                                                              从历史经验看,猪粮比价是预测猪肉价格的优良指标,但考虑到今年的特殊情况,猪粮比价可能对猪瘟疫情反映不足。相比猪粮比价,存栏指标可能更好地反映了近期疫情的影响。基于生猪存栏预测的猪肉价格在二季度走高、三季度回落、四季度重新上涨,并且有望在走出N形后突破2016年的历史高位。

                                                                                                                                                                          考虑到近期CPI的波动主要由食品分项贡献,而猪肉在食品分项中地位重要,因此可以通过对猪肉CPI的预测,测算未来猪肉因素对CPI变化的驱动。由于近期疫情环境下猪肉价格上涨压力较大,为避免单一因素的异常波动对整体价格水平指标的过度影响,统计局可以调整权重以弱化猪肉因素对CPI的驱动。我们基于对猪肉价格的预测,测算未来CPI可能的走势,然后基于历史经验,向下修正CPI同比增速预测值高于3%的月份,得到调整后的预测值。预测调整后年内各月的CPI同比增速有望处于3%以下,走势为N型。叠加基数效应有望使未来PPI在年中回落后年末出现回升,年内通胀走势有望呈现N型。如果通胀N型的下降段能伴随经济的回落,则有望为债券收益率下行打开时间窗口。

                                                                                                                                                                          从高频监测数据看,生产短期回落、汽车零售回升。生产方面,发电耗煤增速回落,高炉开工率落,尿素企业开工率回升,浮法玻璃产能利用率持平。价格方面,上游原油价格回落、煤炭价格持平、铁矿石价格回升,中游钢铁价格回落,有色金属价格回落,水泥价格回升、玻璃价格回落。库存方面,上游原油库存分化,煤炭库存分化,铁矿石库存回落,中游钢铁库存回落、有色库存分化。需求方面,汽车销售回升,商品房销售增速回落,出口运价指数回落。

                                                                                                                                                                          流动性方面,本周央行资金净投放,市场资金利率整体回落;十年国债收益率回落,人民币对美元贬值3月末逆回购余额190200亿,SLF余额327亿,MLF余额37265亿,PSL余额35410亿。4月末逆回购余额173900亿,SLF余额141亿,MLF余额35600亿,PSL余额35410亿。5月3日当周逆回购到期量为500亿,MLF到期1560亿。